What is the price of 1 dollar, how much will the fall in rupee affect your pocket?

Although the rupee has seen significant improvement against the dollar following central bank intervention, this doesn't mean your wallet won't be impacted. 

If you're planning to make any payments in dollars soon, such as tuition or exam fees for foreign studies, foreign travel, ordering a gadget, visa-related fees, etc., the rupee's decline could clearly impact your wallet. 

According to media reports, after a 4.1% decline so far in 2025 (CY25), the rupee could stabilize at around 90 per dollar by the end of December. 

Most people estimate that the rupee could reach around 88.50 against the dollar by the end of March. This means the rupee is likely to strengthen.

What has changed?

According to a Business Standard report, the rupee has depreciated by 4.3 percent so far in fiscal year 2026. Last week, the rupee hit a lifetime low of 91.10. After hitting new lows for four consecutive sessions, the rupee ended the week strengthening by approximately 1.3 percent against the dollar. The report attributes this to intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

The rupee fluctuated between 91.10 and 89.25 before strengthening 1.1 percent to 89.29 in the final hour of trading on Friday, compared to 90.26 in the previous session. 

Market experts told Business Standard that the RBI's move was aimed at eliminating speculative positions and creating panic among traders who had taken long positions in the dollar and short positions in the rupee.

How to make your budget amid falling rupee?

If you're going to be making a dollar payment soon, plan your payments based on 90 rupees per dollar and keep some extra around that. Every 1 rupee change in the US dollar-rupee (USD-INR) rate increases your rupee cost by 1,000 rupees on $1,000. 

For example, if your payment is for $3,000, a 1 rupee change will increase the rupee cost by 3,000 rupees. This allows you to factor the rupee's fluctuations into your budget. This converts "rupee fluctuations" into a number you can budget for.

Understand the complete calculation here?

Currently, we have three levels against the dollar. The first level is 88.50, which could be reached by the end of March 2026. The second level is 90, which could last until the end of December 2025. 

There is also a third level, 91, which was seen in December. If you need to make a payment of $500, you would have to pay Rs 44,250 at the 80.50 level, Rs 45,000 at the 90 level, and Rs 45,500 at the 91 level. 

If your payment is for $2,000, you would have to pay between Rs 1.77 lakh and Rs 1.82 lakh. If the payment is for $10,000, you could have to spend between Rs 8.85 lakh and Rs 9.10 lakh from your own pocket. In this way, you can prepare a budget according to your capacity.

Different opinions of different banks?

According to media reports, various banks in the country have their own opinions. Standard Chartered estimates the dollar level to be 90 rupees by the end of December, while it is likely to fall to 89.5 rupees by the end of March. 

IDFC First Bank sees a level of 89.50-90 by the end of December and 88.5 rupees by the end of March. CR Forex estimates the dollar level to be between 89.80-90.20 by the end of December and 88.80-89.20 by the end of March. 

RBL Bank sees the rupee around 91 against the dollar by the end of December and between 9293 and 9293 by the end of March. Bank of Baroda sees the rupee at 89.590 against the dollar by the end of December and between 90 and 91 by the end of March. 

This divergence is important for budget formulation. If your payment due date is in January or February, your responsibility will be different from someone making the payment at the end of March – even if both are making the payment within the same financial year.

Even after RBI's action, the risk remains unabated.

If you're not a trader, two things are important. First, the RBI is signaling that it doesn't want a one-sided decline. Market experts say the central bank's dollar sales indicate it won't tolerate a "one-sided decline," which will help curb speculation and reduce risk on both sides.

Of course, there are limits to intervention. The RBI's ability to intervene may be limited by its large short positions in the NDF and onshore forward markets, which may require it to liquidate some positions around 88.80 to maintain room for future action.

According to forward market data, the RBI intervened by approximately $30 billion between June and October – $18 billion during June-September and $10 billion in October. 

The central bank's short dollar forward position increased from $59 billion at the end of September to $63 billion by the end of October. In October, the RBI continuously supplied dollars to prevent the rupee from weakening below 88.80.

Stick to a range when budgeting. While the RBI may be against extreme volatility, your payment plan should take volatility into account—especially if the payment date is fixed.