If the 8th Pay Commission is implemented in 2028, how much arrears will government employees get?
The Eighth Pay Commission is expected to be implemented in early 2028, potentially increasing central government employees' salaries by 30-34 percent and leaving them with arrears of millions of rupees. For an employee earning the minimum basic salary, if implementation is delayed by two years, the arrears alone could range between 2.85 and 3 lakh rupees.
The 7th Pay Commission's 10-year term is set to expire on December 31, 2025, after which all attention has now shifted to the 8th Central Pay Commission.
The two most debated issues related to the 8th Pay Commission are: when its recommendations will be implemented and how much salary increase employees can expect based on the new fitment factor.
Now, with the Terms of Reference (ToR) finalized and the committee headed by Justice Ranjana Desai having begun its work, discussions have intensified among central government employees and pensioners regarding salary hikes, revised basic pay, and arrears.
While the exact execution date is yet to be officially confirmed, most estimates point to a belated execution possibly in early 2028, rather than January 2026.
However, this delay could mean significant arrears, especially if the Pay Commission recommendations are implemented retroactively. So, how much arrears can an employee actually receive? Let's understand this in simple terms.
What is the current status of the 8th Pay Commission?
The term of the Seventh Pay Commission ends on December 31, 2025. To ensure continuity, the government has notified the Eighth Pay Commission and approved its ToR. The Commission has been given 18 months to submit its report.
Based on past trends, after the report is submitted, the government typically takes 3-6 months to examine, approve, and notify the recommendations. This means the 8th Pay Commission could be implemented by late 2027 or early 2028.
Although no official date has been announced yet, this deadline has been mentioned in reports by several analysts and leading financial publications.
What is the expected salary increase?
Market analysts, including Ambit Capital, estimate that the salaries and pensions of central government employees could increase by around 30-34 per cent under the 8th Pay Commission.
A key reason for this potential increase is the fitment factor—the multiplier used to revise basic pay. According to reports, the fitment factor could range from 1.83 to 2.46, with many estimates centering around 2.28.
Like previous pay commissions, dearness allowance (DA) is expected to be included in the basic pay before the new structure comes into effect.
What changes can occur in the salary of an employee with minimum basic pay?
- Suppose, the current basic salary of a Level 1 employee is Rs 18,000.
- Currently, after adding DA and allowances, the gross salary of this employee is around Rs 35,000 per month.
- If the basic salary increases by 34 per cent as a result of the Eighth Pay Commission, the revised gross salary will be around Rs 46,900 per month.
- This means an increase of approximately Rs 11,900 per month.
If it is implemented in early 2028, what will be the arrears?
If the Eighth Pay Commission is implemented in January 2028 with retrospective effect from January 2026, employees will get arrears of 24 months.
Monthly increase: Rs 11,900
Outstanding Period: 24 months
Total arrears outstanding: Rs 2.85 lakh
Thus, an employee earning minimum basic salary can get arrears of around Rs 2.8-3 lakh just by salary change.
The area amount will naturally be much higher for employees with higher salary levels.
Importance of arrears along with salary hike
Historically, arrears have been one of the biggest financial benefits for government employees during the implementation of pay commissions. While delays in implementation often cause disappointment, retrospective payments partially compensate for the wait.
In the case of the Seventh Pay Commission, employees received a significant amount of arrears when the recommendations were implemented in 2016, despite the Commission being constituted much earlier.
What else will be included in the Eighth Pay Commission review?
The 8th Pay Commission's TOR is not limited to just the Basel salary revision. It will also review the following:
Allowances like HRA and transport allowance
– Pension and dearness relief structure
Gratuity and retirement benefits
– Pay parity and incentive structure
All these changes will be finalised only after the Commission submits its report and gets the approval of the government.
Eighth Pay Commission